My work at FiveThirtyEight can be found on my contributor page.

I’ve also done some analysis of polling around Austrian elections in 2017 and 2019:

2019:

How herding contributed to a polling error in Austria’s 2019 election (German)

I showed that pollsters were herding in the run-up to the 2019 election, which increased the uncertainty around the election’s outcome. There ended up being a polling error — the conservative party (ÖVP) and the Greens did better than their polls suggested, while the far-right (FPÖ) did worse, changing the coalitions that were possible after the election.

There’s no English version, but I did write some tweets.

Screen Shot 2019-09-30 at 10.38.19 PM.png

2017:

How high is the risk of a conservative/far-right constitutional majority? (German)

By bootstrapping polls in order to simulate potential electoral outcomes in, I show that there was a ~10% chance that the conservative (ÖVP) and far-right (FPÖ) parties would together obtain over two-thirds of the seats in the Austrian Parliament, giving them a constitutional supermajority. I show that this was largely due to the fact that there was an unusually large number of small parties polling near the parliamentary threshold (4%); the more parties fail to clear the threshold, the more seats larger parties obtain with equal vote share.

Could Pilz damage the Green movement? (German)

Two of the small parties mentioned above, the Pilz list and the Greens, were a result of politician Peter Pilz’s decision to leave the Green Party and run on a separate list. This simulation shows that while the original Green Party (had Pilz not left) would have been in no danger of falling beneath the 4% threshold, running separately resulted in a ~40% chance that one of the two parties would fail to clear it, and a ~7% chance that both would.